Israel, Iran and the Unthinkable

To the Editor:

Re "Using Bombs to Stave Off War" (Op-Ed, July 18):

While Benny Morris has done great work in exploring the Israeli-Arab conflict, his article left me amazed. Does he truly believe that there is any possibility of an Israeli pre-emptive nuclear strike?

If Iran's theocratic leadership is "self-sacrificial," why did the regime end the war with Saddam Hussein, instead of sacrificing more and more "martyrs" to end the Iraqi dictator's apostasy? A leadership truly blind to the material costs of its actions to its people would have carried out the war to either its own end, or Saddam Hussein's.

Iran has a very complex regime made up of many different factions with different goals, and it is fantastical to think that all of them would invite their own nuclear annihilation. Gabriel Paniza

New York, July 18, 2008

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To the Editor:

During the 2006 war in Lebanon, the Iranian government made no secret of its full support for Hezbollah.

After witnessing the hero's welcome Hezbollah and its hosts in the Lebanese government gave to Samir Kuntar, the vicious child murderer recently exchanged by Israel for the bodies of two abducted soldiers, can we really afford to let Hezbollah's supporters in Iran develop a doomsday weapon?

Israel knows the answer to this question, and has repeatedly demonstrated that it will defend itself against such a threat, with all means necessary.

The leaders of the world should heed Benny Morris's warning and not let the situation escalate to such a point.

Justin Rosenblum

Brooklyn, July 18, 2008

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To the Editor:

Benny Morris assumes that if Iran acquired nuclear weapons, it would use them to destroy Israel. He also assumes that "deterrence may not work as well" with Iran as it did with the Soviet Union.

It is very likely that both assumptions are wrong.

If this is the case, is it really worth it to kill thousands or even millions of people in Iran and the rest of the Middle East? The answer is no.

There is a need to solve political disputes through diplomatic means. Israeli leaders and intellectuals must rethink their strategic postures. In today's world, the use of force may backfire and result in severe consequences.

Abbas J. Ali

Indiana, Pa., July 18, 2008

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To the Editor:

Benny Morris's prediction that Israel will attack Iran is chilling.

I believe that Mr. Morris is correct that America has no stomach for (or ability to wage) a third war in the Middle East, and I fervently hope that the lame-duck Bush administration does not agree to support Israel in such a venture.

Israel's government is reeling from corruption charges. How can we be sure that Israel is not lying to the world about its situation? What if it is using the same playbook that the Bush administration used to attack Iraq?

Starting a war with Iran would be a disaster for our country and for the Middle East. And ultimately, it would not help Israel.

Israel needs to tone down its rhetoric and learn to live without bullying and threatening its neighbors. Perhaps if Israel made peace in the Gaza Strip, it would not feel so threatened.

Deborah Rhodus

Dallas, July 18, 2008

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To the Editor:

Benny Morris may be right in his scary analysis of the consequences of an Israeli attack on Iran. But I question his statement that the alternative to a successful Israeli conventional air strike "is an Iran turned into a nuclear wasteland," and his fear that that may be a gamble some Iranian leaders believe may be worthwhile "if the prospect is Israel's demise."

It is nonsense to assume that Iranian leaders who in the last two decades have overseen impressive social and economic development would throw it all away just to see Israel's demise.

While the irresponsible call by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran for Israel to be "wiped off the map" is used to justify such paranoid thinking, would anyone intent on developing a bomb to wipe out another country (along with its neighbors) make such a threat years before the bomb is at hand?

If Mr. Ahmadinejad's threat has any strategic value, it must be in a defensive context, to make more credible a vast Iranian response to an Israeli attack.

Let us pray that cooler, more rational heads than Mr. Morris imagines will prevail. Djavad Salehi-Isfahani

Blacksburg, Va., July 18, 2008

To the Editor:

Benny Morris's argument for pre-emptive military action against Iran hinges on the possibility that Iran might act irrationally and suicidally, a possibility suggested by Iran's assumed pursuit of nuclear weapons in the face of sure pre-emptive action.

But consider another possibility.

In recent history, Iran has seen its government replaced and its territory invaded by foreign powers. Iran may seek nuclear weapons not to destroy Israel, a move guaranteed to result in its own destruction, but to gain respect.

Iran may be mistaken to pursue its goal this way — Israel did not think that it was mistaken to do so — but if this is Iran's goal, attacking Iran will intensify, not solve, the problem.

Jamie Baldwin

Redding, Conn., July 18, 2008

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To the Editor:

Benny Morris's call to bomb Iran finds echoes in history. The United States contemplated pre-emptive strikes against the nuclear facilities of the Soviet Union, China and North Korea. The Soviet Union, India and Egypt contemplated bombing the nuclear weapons plants of, respectively, China, Pakistan and Israel.

In each case, the contemplator thought the nuclear proliferator to be a lethal enemy.

Israel took a different tack regarding Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007, and the United States followed suit in its strikes against Iraq's nuclear facilities in 1991 and suspected sites in 2003.

This prompts the question: Were the United States and others wrong not to bomb adversary sites in earlier eras? History suggests not. It finds that even for countries believed to be "crazy," getting the bomb is a sobering experience given the glaring retaliatory consequences of nuclear use.

Those who propose bombing Iran today must answer why the mullahs would be less prudent than their nuclear-armed predecessors.

Bennett Ramberg

Los Angeles, July 18, 2008

The writer, a policy analyst at the State Department, 1989-90, is the author of a book about military strikes on nuclear facilities.

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Farhad Abdolian Antibes-France
e-mail: ny_farhad@yahoo.com (f.abdolian@yahoo.com)
Home page http://www.abdolian.com
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"Never do anything against conscience even if the state demands it" Albert Einstein
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